Market Information

USD/CHF rose about 0.44% on Thursday, pushing back above 0.7830 in a session that extended the recovery from last week's lows near the 0.7700 area.

DBS Group Research economist Radhika Rao discusses Fitch Ratings’ decision to cut Indonesia’s sovereign rating outlook to negative while affirming the BBB rating, following a similar move by Moody’s.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) plummets during the North American session on Thursday as high US Treasury yields underpin the Greenback, which is registering a new two-day high as the Middle East conflict escalates.

Gold price erased the previous day's gains on Thursday, hitting a two-day low as precious metals are pressured by high US Treasury yields and a strong US Dollar, underpinned by solid US jobs data. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $5,069, down more than 1.35%.

TD Securities analysts note that changes in trading conditions will not dramatically alter Canada's growth outlook, pointing to manufacturing's small GDP share and pre-existing investment weakness.

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes that the Pound has been one of the better performing G10 currencies recently, supported by reduced expectations for Bank of England easing.

Silver (XAG/USD) trades lower on Thursday, falling toward $82.20 at the time of writing, down 1.18% on the day. The precious metal is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds following the release of stronger-than-expected US economic data.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 840 points, or 1.73%, to 47,885 at the time of writing, giving back all of Wednesday's gains and then some. The S&P 500 fell 0.82% to around 6,810, while the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.50% to the 22,690 region.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note that for the US, focus is on incoming data and the Federal Reserve outlook as markets approach the March 18 FOMC meeting.

Nordea’s Chief Analyst Jan von Gerich expects the ECB to stay on hold for now while closely monitoring how the Middle East conflict affects Euro-area growth and inflation.

AUD/USD trades around 0.7010 on Thursday at the time of writing, down 0.95% on the day, as the US Dollar (USD) continues to draw support from relatively strong US macroeconomic data and cautious market sentiment.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) resumes its downtrend for the week on Thursday, courtesy of heightened tensions in the Middle East and solid US employment data ahead of Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report. At the time of writing, GBP/USD trades at 1.3337, down 0.25%.

TD Securities analysts see the Bank of Canada balancing trade uncertainty, higher Oil prices and domestic demand. They say GDP must run above potential to avoid disinflationary risks and rate cuts, and that Q1 data will be pivotal.

ING’s Chris Turner notes that persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East and elevated energy prices are supporting the Dollar. Turner expects DXY to drift towards the upper end of recent ranges, and highlights the concerns over US private credit.

Scotiabank analysts Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight that the Canadian Dollar is uniquely resilient, remaining the only major currency to hold steady against the US Dollar since the US/Iran conflict began.

The number of United States (US) citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance was 213K for the week ending February 28.

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley highlights that the Pound has recently outperformed the Euro, helped by fading expectations of Bank of England rate cuts, even though neither currency is seen as a safe haven.

Tom Barkin, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Richmond, said that the Fed will go meeting by meeting, if gas prices rise, that is inflationary and the Fed will have to decide how long that lasts in an interview for Bloomberg TV on Thursday.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman highlights that the Japanese Yen has held up relatively well despite the energy price shock, supported by expectations that the BoJ remains on track to raise rates, potentially as soon as April.

US-based employers announced 48.307K job cuts in February, according to data released Thursday by Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The figure represents a 55% decline from the 108.435K layoffs announced in January and a 72% drop compared with the 172.017K job cuts recorded in the same month last year.

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage notes that Euro area assets remain sensitive to the Iran-driven energy shock, with ECB officials stressing patience on rates despite higher Oil prices.

Standard Chartered economist Talha Nadeem argues that the Middle East conflict increases risks to Türkiye’s inflation and external outlook, prompting a more cautious Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) stance.

The publication of the Accounts of the European Central Bank's (ECB) February monetary policy meeting highlights the Governing Council's relative confidence regarding inflation trends, while emphasising that the environment remains marked by uncertainty.

TD Securities economists expect February Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) to slow to 60k, with 70k private jobs and a 10k decline in government employment.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, are up 2% to near $76.00 during the European trading session on Thursday. The Oil price trades firmly but struggles to stabilize above the $76.00 hurdle due to signs of de-escalation in conflicts between the United States (US), Israel, and Iran.

Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay highlights that the Indian Rupee has weakened as global Oil prices surge, pushing USD/INR above 92.00 for the first time.

NZD/USD trades lower around 0.5920 on Thursday at the time of writing, down 0.32% on the day, as the pair remains under pressure from a broadly firmer US Dollar (USd) and shifting expectations around New Zealand’s monetary policy outlook.

ING analysts Benjamin Schroeder and Michiel Tukker say Bank of England expectations have shifted notably as markets reassess inflation risks from Middle East tensions.

Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi has denied previous reports stating that Iran is ready to abandon its nuclear program on the condition that the United States presents a rewarding alternative offer, News18 reported, citing the state-run Iranian Republic News Agency (IRNA).

Rabobank’s Head of Macro Strategy Elwin de Groot highlights the European Commission’s Industrial Accelerator Act as a major step to rebuild the Eurozone industrial base, accelerate decarbonisation and reduce external dependencies.

In an annual report presented by Premier Li Qiang at the opening session of this year's meeting of the National People's Congress (NPC) on Thursday, China set its 2026 economic growth target at 4.5%-5%, slightly lower than the 5% pace achieved last year.

AUD/JPY depreciates after registering mild gains in the previous session, trading around 110.80 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross remains subdued following the release of Australia’s Trade Balance data.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 6.9124 compared to Wednesday’s fix of 6.9124 and close of 6.9551.

The USD/CAD pair loses ground to near 1.3630 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) gathers strength against the Greenback amid a jump in oil prices. Traders will take more cues from the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims reports later on Thursday. 

Silver (XAG/USD) trades with a positive bias for the second straight day on Thursday, though it lacks follow-through buying and remains confined in the previous day's broader range. The white metal holds above the $84.00 mark during the Asian session, up over 1% for the day.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price remains stronger for the third successive session, trading around $74.80 per barrel during the Asian hours on Thursday. Crude Oil prices climb as supply disruptions persist amid ongoing Middle East war.

The EUR/USD pair trades in negative territory around 1.1635 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) as escalating Middle East conflict boosts safe-haven flows.

Australia’s Trade Surplus narrowed to 2,631M MoM in January versus 3,373M in the previous reading, according to the latest foreign trade data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday. The market consensus was for 3,900M. 

GBP/USD was nearly flat on Wednesday, edging up 0.08% to settle around 1.3370 in a quiet session.

USD/JPY slipped 0.42% on Wednesday, pulling back to around 157.00 after pushing close to 157.90 earlier in the session.

AUD/USD jumped one-half of one percent on Wednesday, rallying back to around 0.7080 after dipping toward the 0.7000 level earlier in the week.

Gold price (XAU/USD) holds positive ground near $5,145 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal edges higher on safe-haven demand from the US–Iran conflict. The US weekly Initial Jobless Claims report is due later on Thursday.

DBS Group Research economists Radhika Rao and Chua Han Teng argue that Indonesia’s growth outlook remains intact despite Middle East tensions. They highlight negligible trade exposure to Iran, diversified links with Gulf economies and net commodity exporter status.

The AUD/USD reversed its course, climbing some 0.61% on Wednesday as the US Dollar remains on the backfoot due to an improvement in market mood, sponsored by solid US economic data. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.7077, poised to end near the day’s high.

The Mexican Peso recovers some ground on Wednesday due to an improvement in risk appetite even though hostilities in the Middle East, extended for the fifth consecutive day. Solid US economic data was ignored by MXN bulls, as depicted by the USD/MXN pair which trades at 17.56, down 0.74%.

Standard Chartered’s Hunter Chan and Shuang Ding expect China’s January-February hard data to show resilience despite soft official PMIs.

The Federal Reserve's (Fed) March 2026 Beige Book, based on data collected through February 23, showed mixed economic conditions. Seven of twelve districts reported slight to moderate growth, but the number of flat or declining districts rose from four to five.

The US Dollar (USD) eased on Wednesday after a two-day rally drove the US Dollar Index (DXY) near the 100.00 mark. The Greenback ignored the positive employment data and ISM Services PMI as the ongoing war between the US and Iran weights on sentiment.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped about 0.18% on Wednesday, settling close to 98.90 after retreating from the 99.68 high printed on Tuesday.

NZD/USD jumps about 0.73% on Wednesday, rallying sharply to around 0.5940 at the time of writing in a session that saw the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) top the currency heatmap against every major counterpart.